Will Bitcoin Reach $1 Million? Arthur Hayes’s Prediction, Macro Scenario, and Future Outlook

Written by Hibt Crypto Research Team

Updated: August 2026

Will Bitcoin reach $1 million?

This is one of the most debated questions in crypto. Proponents argue that Bitcoin’s fixed supply, institutional adoption, ETF inflows, U.S. dollar depreciation, and the global debt cycle could propel BTC into the million‑dollar range. Skeptics counter that Bitcoin remains a highly volatile asset, heavily dependent on liquidity, regulatory conditions, and market demand — and that $1 million is more an extreme bull‑case assumption than an inevitable outcome.

BitMEX co‑founder and Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes has repeatedly predicted that Bitcoin could reach $1 million. His logic is not simple hype; it rests on a macro judgment: if the U.S. and other major economies continue to rely on debt expansion, monetary easing, and financial‑system re‑inflation to manage crises, scarce assets may be repriced, and Bitcoin could be one of the beneficiaries. In multiple interviews and articles in 2025 and 2026, Hayes reiterated his view that “Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2028,” attributing this primarily to dollar liquidity expansion, the debt cycle, and currency debasement.

But to understand this forecast, one should not only ask “Will BTC hit $1 million?” Rather, one should ask: Under what conditions could Bitcoin plausibly reach $1 million? Under what conditions would this forecast fail? And what macro and on‑chain metrics should investors monitor?

1. What Is the $1 Million Bitcoin Prediction? Why Does Arthur Hayes Argue for It?

This chapter addresses the question: Why do some believe BTC could reach $1 million?

Arthur Hayes is a co‑founder of BitMEX and a highly influential macro analyst in the crypto space. His views command attention not only because he comes from an early crypto trading platform, but because he consistently frames Bitcoin within global debt, dollar liquidity, central‑bank policy, and financial‑market structure.

Hayes’s $1 million BTC forecast is not about short‑term technicals or mere market sentiment. His core logic is this: if the global financial system continues to address debt pressures through credit expansion, fiscal deficits, and monetary liquidity, then dollar‑denominated assets will be repriced. Bitcoin, as a fixed‑supply, non‑sovereign, globally accessible asset, is likely to attract greater capital allocation. As reported by The Block, Hayes believes the U.S. needs to increase dollar liquidity, which would help push Bitcoin to $1 million by 2028.

In 2026, Hayes folded the AI infrastructure debt bubble into his macro narrative. He argues that credit expansion for AI data centers and infrastructure could create new financial vulnerabilities; once that bubble bursts, policymakers may again respond with liquidity releases and bailouts to stabilise markets — and that could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s repricing. Yahoo Finance reported in July 2026 that Hayes linked a potential AI‑bubble burst to a broader financial crisis, suggesting it could drive Bitcoin toward the million‑dollar level.

Thus, Arthur Hayes’s “Bitcoin $1 million prediction” is not a slogan of “BTC will certainly rise,” but a macro‑scenario assumption.

2. What Would Bitcoin at $1 Million Mean?

If Bitcoin reached $1 million, with a theoretical maximum supply of 21 million coins, its fully diluted market capitalisation would approach $21 trillion. As explained on Bitcoin.org, Bitcoin’s halving mechanism enforces a predictable issuance schedule and a 21‑million supply cap; the Bitcoin FAQ also clarifies that new BTC issuance automatically halves over time until issuance ceases and the 21‑million total is reached.

This means a $1 million BTC is not an ordinary rally, but a scenario in which Bitcoin upgrades from a risk asset to a major global macro asset.

It could imply:

• Bitcoin becomes a global store‑of‑value asset akin to gold.
• Institutional portfolios significantly increase their BTC allocation.
• ETFs, custody, derivatives, and regulated markets mature considerably.
• Some investors view BTC as a hedge against currency debasement and fiscal risk.
• Global demand for non‑sovereign scarce assets rises materially.

So, the key to Bitcoin reaching $1 million is not a “sudden market frenzy,” but whether global capital is willing to allocate to Bitcoin as a long‑term reserve asset, macro hedge, and digital gold.

3. What Is the Core Logic Behind the $1 Million Bitcoin Prediction?

This chapter addresses: What is the underlying logic of the $1 million BTC forecast?

The core of this prediction is not that Bitcoin suddenly becomes “more expensive,” but that the purchasing power of the dollar, global liquidity, and asset‑price systems undergo fundamental shifts.

• If money supply increases, cash purchasing power falls, and investors become more inclined to hold scarce assets.
• If government debt keeps rising and fiscal deficits widen, markets may worry about future inflation, monetary easing, or financial repression to manage debt.
• If institutional investors upgrade Bitcoin from a speculative asset to a long‑term portfolio allocation, the scale of capital flows changes radically.
• If ETFs, custody, and regulated markets continue to mature, more traditional capital can enter Bitcoin.

The CBO’s August 2026 Budget Outlook projects a U.S. federal budget deficit of $1.9 trillion for FY2026, with federal debt held by the public rising to 120% of GDP by 2036. Such a debt trajectory is precisely why macro investors focus on currency debasement and asset repricing.

Hence, the $1 million Bitcoin thesis is fundamentally a judgment on the global debt cycle, monetary credit, and the repricing of scarce assets.

4. Why Could Bitcoin Rise? Bull Case 1: Global Monetary Expansion

This chapter addresses: Under what conditions could BTC reach $1 million?

The first bull case is global monetary expansion.

When central banks increase liquidity, governments expand fiscal deficits, and the financial system creates more money through credit, scarce assets tend to attract more attention. Gold, real estate, equities, and Bitcoin can all be destinations for capital seeking purchasing‑power protection.

Bitcoin’s distinctive feature is that its supply rules are public, transparent, and verifiable. It is not subject to discretionary expansion by central banks and fiscal authorities. Bitcoin’s issuance is protocol‑controlled; the halving mechanism steadily reduces new supply growth, with a long‑term cap near 21 million.

This is why Bitcoin is often called “digital gold” in macro narratives.

If global money supply continues to expand, and investors become concerned about fiat purchasing power, Bitcoin may benefit.

However, monetary expansion does not automatically drive BTC higher. Whether capital actually flows into BTC depends on market confidence, the regulatory environment, ETF channels, liquidity conditions, and institutional risk appetite.

5. Bull Case 2: Dollar Purchasing‑Power Decline and Currency Debasement

The second bull case is currency debasement.

If government debt increases, fiscal pressure mounts, and interest costs rise, policymakers face difficult choices: cut spending, raise taxes, keep rates high, or ease financial conditions to alleviate debt burdens.

The scenario that markets fear is that governments and central banks may ultimately prefer inflation and liquidity expansion to reduce the real burden of debt.

In such an environment, investors may seek alternative assets — gold, Bitcoin, commodities, overseas assets, or other non‑sovereign stores of value.

Hayes’s macro view is built precisely on this logic. He argues that debt expansion and currency debasement will drive capital into non‑sovereign scarce assets like Bitcoin. Forbes’ interview with Hayes likewise attributed his $1 million forecast to debt expansion, currency debasement, and geoeconomic restructuring.

Thus, if a stronger dollar‑depreciation expectation emerges, Bitcoin’s “hard‑asset narrative” could strengthen.

6. Bull Case 3: Institutional Adoption Growth and ETF Inflows

The third bull case is institutional adoption.

In its early years, Bitcoin was primarily driven by retail investors, miners, the tech community, and crypto‑native capital. But after the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, BTC entered the broader traditional financial market. The SEC approved several spot Bitcoin ETPs for trading in January 2024; CRS records also note that the SEC granted Rule 19b‑4 approvals for 11 spot Bitcoin ETPs on January 10, 2024.

The significance of ETFs is that they allow certain institutions and ordinary investors to gain Bitcoin price exposure through traditional brokerage accounts, without directly managing private keys, wallets, or on‑chain transfers.

This changes Bitcoin’s capital structure.

In the past, BTC relied more on crypto exchanges and on‑chain wallets.

Now, BTC can enter asset management portfolios, ETF bundles, retirement accounts, advisory products, and institutional custody systems.

If institutional allocation ratios continue to rise, Bitcoin demand could expand substantially.

This is two sides of the same coin as RWA and traditional‑asset tokenisation. Traditional finance is entering crypto, and crypto is absorbing traditional assets. For example, users can observe Circle‑related tokenised stock assets via CRCLON Real‑Time Quote to understand how traditional finance and crypto markets are converging.

7. What Macro Conditions Are Needed for Bitcoin to Reach $1 Million?

This chapter addresses: What environment does this price target require?

For BTC to reach $1 million, it is not enough to have a single positive catalyst; multiple macro conditions must align.

First, a global liquidity cycle turning accommodative.

Bitcoin is highly sensitive to liquidity. A 2026 study on Bitcoin and central‑bank policy expectations noted that Bitcoin prices are highly responsive to monetary‑policy narratives, with hawkish narratives often triggering negative price reactions.

Second, the debt cycle continuing to deteriorate.

If debt pressures in the U.S. and other major economies keep rising, markets may be more willing to allocate to scarce assets to hedge long‑term currency risk. The CBO projects U.S. publicly held debt rising from 99% of GDP at end‑2025 to 120% by 2036, and notes that debt growth will feed into deficits through higher interest costs.

Third, institutional allocation ratios increasing.

If large asset managers, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, corporate balance sheets, and family offices gradually incorporate Bitcoin into long‑term portfolios, the demand structure for BTC will change markedly.

Fourth, a clearer regulatory path.

The clearer the rules on Bitcoin ETFs, custody, trading platforms, and taxation, the easier it is for institutions to enter. If regulatory uncertainty declines, long‑term capital can more readily allocate.

Fifth, Bitcoin maintaining network security and the scarcity consensus.

Bitcoin’s core value derives from its decentralised network, fixed supply, censorship resistance, and global consensus. If these fundamentals are impaired, the $1 million narrative would weaken.

8. Could the Debt Cycle Push BTC Higher?

The government‑debt cycle is one of the core variables in Arthur Hayes’s macro narrative.

Debt does not automatically lead to Bitcoin appreciation, but a high‑debt environment makes markets more attentive to two things:

1. Will governments continue to increase borrowing?
2. Will central banks re‑release liquidity under pressure?

If markets believe that high debt will ultimately lead to currency debasement, investors are more likely to buy scarce assets.

Bitcoin’s role in this narrative resembles that of “digital gold.” It does not depend on any government’s credit, has no central issuer, and its supply curve is relatively predictable.

However, the logic of debt‑cycle‑driven BTC appreciation is not linear. In the short term, if debt pressures trigger financial‑market panic, investors may first sell risk assets for cash, and Bitcoin may fall as well. Only when policy shifts back to easing and liquidity returns to markets can BTC potentially benefit.

Thus, a debt crisis may be a source of pressure first, and a catalyst later — not a simple positive.

9. Could Bitcoin Become Digital Gold?

The comparison between Bitcoin and gold is inevitable in any discussion of the $1 million prediction.

Gold’s value comes from millennia of historical consensus, scarcity, physical attributes, central‑bank reserves, and safe‑haven demand.

Bitcoin’s value comes from digital scarcity, transferability, global settlement, censorship resistance, transparent supply, and non‑sovereign properties.

The two may both compete and complement each other.

For traditional macro investors, gold is a mature safe‑haven asset.

For investors in the digital age, Bitcoin may be a more suitable store‑of‑value tool for an internet‑based financial system.

For Bitcoin to approach $1 million, the market must more broadly accept the “Bitcoin is digital gold” narrative and be willing to include it in long‑term asset allocation — not merely treat it as a short‑term speculative instrument.

10. Bitcoin $1M Bear Case: Why Might This Prediction Fail?

This chapter addresses: If BTC does not reach $1 million, what would be the reasons?

Any responsible Bitcoin price prediction must include a bear case. BTC is not a risk‑free asset, and $1 million is by no means a guaranteed target.

Bear Case 1: Regulatory Restrictions

If major countries impose stricter restrictions on exchanges, custody, ETFs, stablecoins, taxation, or self‑custody wallets, Bitcoin’s market liquidity and institutional adoption could be affected.

U.S. regulatory direction is especially important. Market‑structure bills like the CLARITY Act could promote clearer crypto rules, but if regulation becomes overly restrictive, it could also suppress innovation and asset liquidity. Users can read the CLARITY Act explainer to understand how the SEC, CFTC, and crypto market structure affect digital assets.

Clearer regulation may benefit adoption.

Excessively tight regulation may dampen demand.

The key is whether rules protect investors while allowing compliant market development.

Bear Case 2: Liquidity Tightening

Bitcoin remains highly influenced by global liquidity. If interest rates stay high for a prolonged period, the dollar strengthens, risk assets come under pressure, and central banks are reluctant to ease monetary policy, BTC may struggle to sustain upward momentum.

Market data in 2026 also shows that Bitcoin prices remain sensitive to Fed decisions and rate expectations; for example, recent reports noted that after the Fed held rates steady, Bitcoin traded around $64,000 with rising derivatives open interest.

This illustrates that despite its “digital gold” narrative, BTC still exhibits risk‑asset characteristics in short‑term trading.

Bear Case 3: Insufficient Demand

Price appreciation requires fresh buying.

If institutional investor interest wanes, ETF flows slow, retail participation declines, and on‑chain activity weakens, Bitcoin’s upside momentum may be insufficient.

Even with supply scarcity, without sustained demand, prices will not automatically rise.

Therefore, Bitcoin’s long‑term value is determined not only by the 21‑million supply cap, but by the combination of scarcity and demand.

11. Bitcoin’s Supply Model: Why Does Scarcity Support Long‑Term Value?

This chapter addresses: Why is BTC considered scarce?

Bitcoin’s core feature is fixed supply and predictable issuance.

It is not like fiat money, which central banks can expand at will according to policy needs, nor like many crypto tokens that have governance modifications, inflation rewards, or continuous issuance. Bitcoin’s code rules cap total supply near 21 million. Bitcoin.org materials explain that the halving mechanism enforces Bitcoin’s predictable issuance schedule and its 21‑million supply cap.

The halving is a key event in Bitcoin’s supply model.

Roughly every four years, the Bitcoin block reward is halved, reducing the rate of new BTC issuance. Reuters explains that Bitcoin halvings lower the rate at which new BTC is generated, and Bitcoin was designed from its inception with a 21‑million supply cap.

This means:

• New Bitcoin supply declines over the long term.
• Miners receive fewer and fewer new BTC.
• If demand holds or grows, scarcity intensifies.

But investors should also understand: scarcity does not equal guaranteed price appreciation. Scarce assets still require market demand, liquidity, and consensus support.

12. Differences Between Bitcoin and Other Crypto Token Economic Models

Bitcoin’s supply model is very simple: a fixed cap, periodic halvings, and new issuance trending toward zero over time.

Many other crypto assets differ.

For example, Solana uses an inflation model, issuing new SOL to reward validators and stakers, while offsetting supply growth through partial fee burns. Users can read the Solana Inflation Mechanism deep‑dive to understand how a layer‑1 asset balances network security, inflation, burns, and ecosystem growth.

This shows that different crypto assets cannot be analysed with the same yardstick.

• BTC is more like a digital monetary asset and store of value.
• ETH is more like a smart‑contract settlement layer and financial‑infrastructure asset.
• SOL is more like a high‑performance application‑chain asset.
• RWA tokens are on‑chain representations of real‑world assets.
• Meme tokens rely more on community and sentiment.

Bitcoin’s uniqueness lies in its investment thesis being closest to “non‑sovereign monetary asset.”

13. Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: How Will Crypto Asset Values Compare in the Future?

This chapter addresses: Which will be more valuable in the future, BTC or ETH?

Bitcoin and Ethereum are not necessarily direct competitors. They solve different problems.

Bitcoin’s core value logic:

• Store of value
• Digital gold
• Monetary asset
• Fixed supply
• Non‑sovereign asset

Users can follow the BTC Price Prediction page to observe Bitcoin market trends and long‑term price references.

Ethereum’s core value logic:

• Smart contracts
• DeFi
• Settlement layer
• Tokenised assets
• Layer‑2 ecosystem

Users can follow the ETH Price Prediction page to understand Ethereum’s value as on‑chain financial infrastructure.

In short:

• BTC is more like digital gold.
• ETH is more like an on‑chain financial settlement layer.
• BTC pursues scarcity and monetary properties.
• ETH pursues programmable finance and ecosystem value capture.

If the crypto market continues to expand, BTC and ETH may both benefit, but their roles differ.

14. Bitcoin and the Future Financial System: RWA, Stablecoins, and Asset Digitisation Trends

This chapter addresses: Is Bitcoin just an investment asset for the future?

The future crypto market will likely consist not only of Bitcoin, but also stablecoins, RWAs, tokenised stocks, on‑chain bonds, DeFi lending, cross‑chain assets, and digital financial infrastructure.

• Stablecoins may become global digital payment and on‑chain settlement tools.
• RWAs may bring stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, and funds onto blockchain markets.
• DeFi may allow assets to enter lending, collateralisation, liquidity pools, and automated financial strategies.

For example, What is FXRP shows how XRP can be mapped into DeFi lending and collateralisation ecosystems.

What is ALABB and What is POPMART represent the trend of traditional corporate assets, brand assets, and tokenised assets entering crypto markets.

In such a financial system, Bitcoin may play the role of a “core reserve asset,” while stablecoins and RWAs handle payments, trading, and asset expansion.

15. Bitcoin Future Price Scenario Models: What Path Leads to $1 Million?

This chapter addresses: How could BTC progressively move toward a million dollars?

We do not offer a deterministic forecast here, but instead use scenario analysis.

Scenario 1: Extreme Bull Case

Conditions include:

• Massive global monetary expansion.
• Debt pressures triggering re‑inflationary policies.
• Large‑scale institutional allocation to BTC.
• Bitcoin becoming a reserve asset for some institutions and even nations.
• ETFs, custody, and derivatives markets highly mature.

In this extreme bull scenario, Bitcoin could approach the million‑dollar level. Hayes’s $1 million forecast is closer to this Extreme Bull Case than to a baseline prediction under normal market cycles.

Scenario 2: Moderate Bull Case

Conditions include:

• ETFs continuing to attract capital.
• Steady increase in institutional adoption.
• Moderate improvement in global liquidity.
• Bitcoin continuing to be allocated as digital gold.
• Gradual regulatory clarity.

In this scenario, BTC could keep setting new all‑time highs, but may not necessarily reach $1 million. It could become a more mature macro asset, but the price target depends on capital scale and market cycles.

Scenario 3: Bear Case

Conditions include:

• Rising regulatory pressure.
• Prolonged liquidity tightening.
• ETF inflows slowing.
• Investment demand declining.
• Institutional allocation below expectations.
• Bitcoin’s narrative being overshadowed by other assets.

In this scenario, Bitcoin could remain well below $1 million for an extended period, and may even experience large drawdowns amid high volatility.

16. How to Assess Bitcoin’s Long‑Term Value? What Metrics Should Investors Watch?

This chapter addresses: What should investors look at?

Macro Indicators

Watch interest rates, the dollar index, money supply, Fed policy, fiscal deficits, U.S. Treasury yields, and global liquidity.

Bitcoin’s long‑term trend is often highly correlated with the liquidity environment. Accommodative conditions tend to favour risk assets and scarce assets, while tighter conditions may weigh on BTC.

On‑Chain Indicators

Monitor active addresses, exchange balances, long‑term holder supply, miner balances, realised cap, MVRV, and long‑term holder behaviour.

If long‑term holders continue accumulating, exchange balances decline, and on‑chain usage stays active, the market structure is likely healthier.

Market Indicators

Watch ETF flows, institutional demand, futures markets, options open interest, funding rates, stablecoin supply, and exchange trading volume.

ETF flows are especially important because they represent demand for Bitcoin through traditional financial channels. Since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, BTC has become more deeply embedded in traditional asset management.

17. Bitcoin Investment Risks: What to Watch Even If BTC Rises

This chapter addresses: Avoiding excessive bullishness.

First, volatility risk.

Bitcoin remains a highly volatile asset. Even if the long‑term trend is upward, drawdowns of 50% or more are possible. Investors should not use short‑term funds, borrowed funds, or funds they cannot afford to lose to take large BTC positions.

Second, leverage risk.

In Bitcoin bull runs, many investors use futures and leverage. But leverage amplifies risk. Even if the directional view is correct, short‑term swings can trigger liquidations.

Third, regulatory risk.

Trading platforms, ETFs, stablecoins, taxation, self‑custody wallets, and cross‑border fund flows can all be affected by regulatory changes.

Fourth, custody risk.

If BTC is held on an exchange, one must bear platform risk. If self‑custody is chosen, one must bear private‑key and wallet security responsibilities.

Fifth, wallet security risk.

For long‑term BTC holders, asset security is paramount. Users can read the Coldcard Hack deep‑dive to understand why hardware wallets, seed phrases, random‑number generation, multisig, and asset‑migration processes all affect BTC security.

18. FAQ: Common Questions About Bitcoin $1 Million

Can Bitcoin reach $1 million?

Bitcoin could potentially reach $1 million under certain macro scenarios, but it is not a guaranteed outcome. It would require global monetary expansion, large‑scale institutional adoption, clear regulatory paths, sustained ETF inflows, and a strengthening consensus that Bitcoin is digital gold.

Why does Arthur Hayes predict Bitcoin could reach $1 million?

Hayes’s prediction is primarily based on monetary expansion, the debt cycle, dollar purchasing‑power decline, and financial‑system re‑inflation. He believes that when governments respond to crises with more liquidity, Bitcoin, as a non‑sovereign scarce asset, may benefit.

What would Bitcoin’s market cap be at $1 million?

Using the theoretical 21‑million supply cap, Bitcoin’s fully diluted market capitalisation at $1 million would be approximately $21 trillion. That figure implies Bitcoin would need to become a globally significant asset, not merely a crypto‑market‑internal asset.

Is Bitcoin a safe investment?

Bitcoin is not a traditional safe asset. It has strong long‑term appreciation potential and a scarcity narrative, but it remains highly volatile and faces regulatory, liquidity, custody, and market‑cycle risks.

How long would it take for Bitcoin to reach $1 million?

There is no set timetable. Hayes has suggested a 2028 target, but that is a macro‑scenario projection, not a guaranteed outcome. The market path depends on liquidity, the debt cycle, ETF flows, institutional adoption, and the regulatory environment.

Which is better for hedging, Bitcoin or gold?

Gold has a longer history, lower volatility, and greater central‑bank holdings. Bitcoin is younger, more volatile, but offers digital scarcity, global transferability, and non‑sovereign attributes. The two may compete or complement each other in different portfolios.

Which is better for long‑term holding, BTC or ETH?

BTC leans more toward digital gold and monetary assets. ETH leans more toward smart contracts, DeFi, and on‑chain financial infrastructure. Investors should decide based on their own risk appetite, portfolio objectives, and views on crypto’s future structure.

19. Conclusion: Will Bitcoin Rise to $1 Million?

Bitcoin reaching $1 million is not impossible, but it requires very strong macro and market conditions.

Arthur Hayes’s forecast is not “BTC will certainly go up,” but a macro judgment: if global debt problems continue to deteriorate, and governments and central banks continue to address pressures through liquidity and monetary expansion, further diluting dollar purchasing power, then Bitcoin, as a fixed‑supply, non‑sovereign, globally circulating scarce asset, may be repriced.

Bitcoin’s Bull Case rests on:

• Global monetary expansion.
• Dollar purchasing‑power decline.
• Increasing institutional adoption.
• ETF inflows.
• Fixed supply and halving mechanisms.
• Strengthening digital‑gold narrative.
• Global asset digitisation trends.

Bitcoin’s Bear Case is equally clear:

• Regulatory restrictions.
• Liquidity tightening.
• Insufficient institutional demand.
• Declining risk appetite.
• Excessive price volatility.
• Wallet and custody risks.

For long‑term investors, the most important thing is not blindly believing the $1 million prediction, but building one’s own analytical framework:

• Watch macro: interest rates, dollar, debt, liquidity.
• Watch demand: ETF flows, institutional allocations, on‑chain data.
• Watch supply: halvings, miner behaviour, long‑term holders.
• Watch risks: regulation, leverage, custody, security.

A more rational approach is to build a complete understanding of crypto macro, asset types, and security by exploring resources such as BTC Price Prediction, ETH Price Prediction, CLARITY Act explainer, Solana Inflation Mechanism, What is FXRP, What is ALABB, What is POPMART, and the Coldcard Hack deep‑dive.

Ultimately, whether Bitcoin reaches $1 million depends on one question: will global capital redefine BTC from a high‑volatility speculative asset into a long‑term reserve asset for the digital age? If the answer is yes, $1 million is not entirely implausible; if global liquidity tightens, institutional demand falls, or regulatory pressure rises, this prediction may remain unfulfilled for a long time.